U.S. House election, 2006

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Elections for the United States House of Representatives will be held on November 7, 2006, with all of the 435 seats in the House being contested. Since Representatives are elected for two-year terms, those elected will serve from January 3, 2007 until January 3, 2009.

The 2006 Senate election is scheduled for the same date as the House election, as well as many state and local elections, including those for 36 state governors.

Contents

1 Major parties 2 Races to watch 2.1 Retiring Representatives 2.2 Notable incumbent races 3 See also

Major parties

The House is currently composed of 232 Republicans, who have been in the majority since 1995, 202 Democrats, and 1 independent. (The independent, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, is allied with the Democratic caucus.) The Democrats will need to pick up 15 seats to retake control of the House.

Races to watch

It is not yet clear which seats will have the most competitive races. Past election history indicates that incumbents are difficult to defeat, even when their party affiliation is at odds with the natural tendencies of the district, and that the most competitive races are those where the incumbent retires, followed by those in which the incumbent has served only one term. Besides the elections listed below, it is possible that additional special elections will be held due to the death or resignation of Representatives in the interim. This would also change the party balances listed above.

Retiring Representatives

• Bob Beauprez (R-CO-07) – Beauprez was reelected easily in 2004, but his retirement to run for Governor of Colorado makes this seat very competitive, as the 7th District, located in the Denver suburbs, was originally drawn to be. Joanna Conti, who ran in 2004 against Tom Tancredo, another Colorado Representative, plans to run in this race.

• Mike Bilirakis (R-FL-09) – Bilirakis plans to retire, but few expect this seat to be competitive as it is a heavily Republican district located on Florida's Gulf coast. There are rumors that Bilirakis' son, Gus, will run for his father's seat.

• Jim Davis (D-FL-11) – Davis is running for governor, and this seat is not expected to be very competitive as it contains heavily Democratic Tampa and South St. Petersburg. Florida State Senate Democratic Leader Les Miller has announced that he will run for the House seat being vacated by Davis.

• Katherine Harris (R-FL-13) – Harris is planning to challenge Senator Bill Nelson, a Democrat, in 2006, and will vacate her Gulf Coast seat to do so. Polls show she faces an uphill battle in the Senate race, but any Republican likely has the edge to win her congressional district, which is GOP-leaning.

• Butch Otter (R-ID-01) – Otter is running for governor, and his seat, too, is expected to be safe for any Republican. Idaho's 1st contains more or less the western half of the state and is almost 70% Republican.

• Henry Hyde (R-IL-06) – Hyde is retiring after 16 terms in the House. Christine Cegelis, who mustered 45% of the vote when running against him in 2004, plans to run again as a Democrat, while State Senator Peter Roskam is rumored to be mulling a run as a Republican. The district contains some of the western suburbs of Chicago in DuPage and Cook counties.

• Ray LaHood (R-IL-18) – LaHood is said to be running for governor against incumbent Democrat Rod Blagojevich. His seat is Republican-leaning, but is certainly not as heavily so as several other districts in Illinois. The district is centered on Peoria in central Illinois.

• Jim Nussle (R-IA-01) – Nussle is running for governor as well. His district is Democratic-leaning, and of the open seats so far is probably the most likely to change hands. It contains most of northeastern Iowa including small cities such as Dubuque.

• Ben Cardin (D-MD-03) – Cardin is running for the open Senate seat in Maryland being vacated by Democrat Paul Sarbanes. In the last two elections, Cardin received the lowest vote for any Maryland incumbent Congressman. His House seat is within reach of a strong Republican candidate, but none have emerged. Thus, this seat is considered to remain a Democratic seat. It is currently a gerrymandered district including parts of Baltimore and three Counties, including the Capital of Annapolis.

• Mark Kennedy (R-MN-06) – Kennedy is running, practically unopposed in the Republican nomination, for the open Senate seat in Minnesota being vacated by Democrat Mark Dayton. His House seat would be considered by many a toss-up if Patty Wetterling, who mustered 46% against Kennedy in 2004, ran for it. However, she seems interested in the Senate as well, and his district, located in exurban Minneapolis and suburban St. Paul, remains Republican-leaning. A candidate for the district is State Senator Michele Bachmann.

• Tom Osborne (R-NE-03) – Osborne is running for governor, not for Democrat Ben Nelson's Senate seat as some expected. His district, covering western Nebraska, is heavily Republican.

• Jim Gibbons (R-NV-02) – Gibbons is running for governor, and his wife Dawn has expressed interest in running for his seat. The district, which encompasses the vast majority of rural Nevada, is heavily Republican. Sharron Angle, a member of the state legislature, is running in the Republican primary with early support from the free market group, Club for Growth. Republican Dean Heller, Nevada's Secretary of State, is also planning to run.

• Frank Pallone (D-NJ-06) – Pallone is running for the Senate seat made open by the 2005 gubernatorial run of Democrat Jon Corzine. The district stretches through many beach communities in northeastern New Jersey. It is heavily Democratic.

• Major Owens (D-NY-11) – Owens is retiring after 12 terms. His seat should remain Democratic, as it is a heavily African-American one in heavily Democratic New York City.

• Ted Strickland (D-OH-06) – Strickland is running for Governor of Ohio. His seat, stretching across Ohio's eastern edge, from the Kentucky border to the Pennsylvania border, is Republican-leaning and should be competitive.

• Harold Ford Jr. (D-TN-09) – Ford is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Republican Bill Frist. Though he may face an uphill battle in that race, whichever Democrat chooses to run for his House seat should have little trouble, as the 9th is based in the Democratic stronghold of Memphis.

• Bernie Sanders (I-VT-AL) – Sanders, a self-described socialist who represents the state of Vermont, plans to run for the Senate seat being vacated by fellow Independent Jim Jeffords. Sanders is very popular in the state, and his seat should remain in either Independent or Democratic hands, as Vermont voted for John Kerry 59-40 over George W. Bush in 2004.

• Mark Green (R-WI-08) – Green is running for governor like many of his colleagues, and his seat, in rural northeastern Wisconsin, is Republican-leaning, though not hugely.

Notable incumbent races

It is not clear which incumbents will face difficult or close races. However, based on the results of 2004, we can make a few projections.

First of all, should a Republican mid-decade redistricting effort go through in Georgia, two Democrats, Jim Marshall of the 3rd District (in middle Georgia) and John Barrow of the 12th District (in eastern Georgia), could face tough races. Marshall's district becomes much more Republican under the new redistricting map, while Barrow's becomes slightly more so.

Then, there are incumbents who may be vulnerable for non-redistricting reasons. These include:

• Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO-04) – Musgrave, a very conservative Republican who was one of the leading proponents of the Federal Marriage Amendment, won a surprisingly close 51-44 reelection in 2004 despite the Republican-leaning nature of her eastern Colorado district.

• Chris Shays (R-CT-04) – Shays won reelection by a 52-48 margin in 2004 and represents a Democratic-leaning district encompassing southwestern Connecticut that includes Bridgeport and Westport.

• Rob Simmons (R-CT-02) – Simmons won reelection with 54% of the vote in 2004, in a Democratic-leaning district encompassing eastern Connecticut.

• Melissa Bean (D-IL-08) – Bean defeated 35-year House veteran Phil Crane 52-48 in 2004, and is being targeted by Republicans who hope to regain control of the seat.

• Mike Sodrel (R-IN-09) – Sodrel defeated incumbent Baron Hill by only 1,425 votes. Hill is considering an attempt to reclaim his seat.

• Leonard Boswell (D-IA-03) – Boswell won a close reelection in 2004 in a very competitive district containing Des Moines and its surrounding areas.

• Charlie Melancon (D-LA-03) – In a December 2004 runoff, Melancon squeaked into Congress by a margin of half a percentage point. His district is a Republican-leaning one in the southeast of Louisiana, which may make him vulnerable.

• Robin Hayes (R-NC-08) – Hayes was elected for a fourth term in 2004 by a 56% to 44% vote. However, this was against an opponent, Beth Troutman, who was a 27-year-old production assistant on the T.V. show The West Wing, with no prior experience in elected office and with only a tiny fraction of the funding that Hayes had. For a three-term Republican incumbent, with substantial funding, in a Republican-leaning state, against such an opponent, 56% to 44% is a remarkably narrow margin.

• Heather Wilson (R-NM-01) – Wilson has routinely managed narrow reelections since 1998, but in 2006 she may face Patricia Madrid, the popular Democratic Attorney General of New Mexico. Madrid would undoubtedly be a stronger and more recognized candidate than previous challengers to Wilson. The district, centered in Albuquerque, is very competitive.

• Jim Gerlach (R-PA-06) – Gerlach won reelection by a 51-49 margin in 2004 and represents a very competitive district in suburban Philadelphia. Lois Murphy, the woman who garnered 49% against him in 2004, is running again.

• Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA-08) – Fitzpatrick won in 2004, but his district is very moderate and even slightly Democratic. His views, especially on abortion, are more conservative than those of most people in the Philadelphia suburbs, and that may be an issue for him in 2006. Patrick Murphy has announced his candidacy and is already getting more support from the national Democratic Party than his 2004 counterpart, Ginny Schrader.

• Stephanie Herseth (D-SD-AL) – Herseth was elected to the House in a special election in 2004 and again in the 2004 general election, but owing to South Dakota's heavily conservative electorate and the defeat of fellow Democrat Tom Daschle, her seat is by no means safe.

• Tom DeLay (R-TX-22) – DeLay has been facing mounting ethical challenges and corruption charges in recent months, and won reelection by a surprisingly small 55-41 margin in 2004, even though George W. Bush carried the suburban Houston district with 64%. DeLay will face a challenge from former Rep. Nick Lampson, a Democrat whose district he dismantled during the 2003 redistricting, and who may be a formidable candidate. Lampson's former district contained much of the area of DeLay's present district.

• Chet Edwards (D-TX-17) – Edwards won reelection by a 51-48 margin in 2004 after the Texas redistricting changed his exurban Central Texas district dramatically and made it more Republican. He may be safer in 2006, though.

• Jim Matheson (D-UT-02) – Though Matheson won a close reelection in 2004, his district includes much of heavily Republican southern Utah, and he is a regular target of the GOP every election.

• Dave Reichert (R-WA-08) – Reichert's district, at the eastern edge of the Seattle metropolitan area, is very competitive, and he won it only 52-48 in 2004.

We will not know the details on these races for some time, but most analysts expect the ones previously mentioned to be at least somewhat close. Updates will be posted through Election Night 2006.

See also

• U.S. Senate election, 2006
• U.S. gubernatorial elections, 2006

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