2005 Atlantic hurricane season
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The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season officially began June 1, 2005, and will last until November 30, 2005. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic Ocean.
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Pre-season forecasts
Forecasts of hurricane activity during the upcoming season are issued by noted hurricane expert Dr. William Gray and his associates at Colorado State University, and separately by NOAA forecasters.
Dr. Gray's team defines the average number of storms per season (1950–2000) as 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 hurricanes reaching or exceeding Category 3 strength. A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 6 to 14 named storms, 4 to 8 of which reach hurricane strength, and 1 to 3 of those reaching or exceeding Category 3 strength.
On December 3, 2004, Dr. Gray's team issued their first extended range forecast for the 2005 season. They predicted a slightly above-average season, with 11 named storms, 6 reaching hurricane strength, and 3 reaching Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Additionally, they predicted a greatly increased chance of a major hurricane striking the East Coast of the United States and the Florida peninsula. However, even these above-normal forecasts are below the activity level of the 2004 season.
In their April 1, 2005 update, Dr. Gray's team revised their December forecast upwards. The updated forecast predicted 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, with three reaching Category 3 strength or greater on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The odds of a storm striking the U.S. were also raised slightly.
On May 16, 2005, NOAA issued its outlook for the 2005 season. They forecast a 70% chance of above normal activity, with 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 hurricanes reaching Category 3 intensity. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy value for the season is expected to be 120 percent to 190 percent of the median, which would place the season firmly above normal activity.
On May 31, Dr. Gray's team revised their April forecast upwards. The updated forecast predicted 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes greater than Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Storms
Tropical Storm Arlene
June 8 - 13, 2005
Maximum sustained winds: 70 mph (110 km/h)
Early in the season—nearly two months earlier than first storm formation in 2004—a low-pressure area formed and persisted north of Honduras. This low-pressure system experienced significant shear from the southwest, which pushed the system's convective storms away from the low pressure system. However, the low managed to organize, and was finally labelled Tropical Depression One on June 8, and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Arlene the next day.
The newly named storm began heading slowly north toward western Cuba. Arlene was a large but poorly-organized and relatively weak storm; the shear that had slowed its initial development continuing to push most of the storm's activity to the northeast. It produced precipitation over a very wide area; the Cayman Islands reported tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain over 150 miles (240 km) east of the center.
As it crossed the western tip of Cuba on the morning of June 10, the storm began gaining strength. Since most of the precipitation was north and east of the center of circulation, Florida was drenched by the storm over a day before actual landfall, and far east and well ahead of landfall, tornado watches were issued for the Florida peninsula [1] (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0450.html). With the storm now in the Gulf of Mexico, the shear relaxed somewhat and Arlene's winds increased to just under Category 1 hurricane strength.
While the reduction in shear had allowed for strengthening, the bulk of the storm was still located to the northeast of the center; the only death reported thus far was a woman caught in riptide in Miami, Florida, far from the center of circulation.[2] (http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=839989)
Arlene made landfall just west of Pensacola, Florida around 2 pm CDT (1900 UTC) on June 11, though most of its effects were onshore long before the center. Arlene was the most intense landfalling June storm since Hurricane Allison in the 1995 season.
Though weakened heavily by landfall, Arlene persisted as a dying tropical depression, passing into Indiana on June 12 and Michigan on June 13, dropping several inches of rain along its path.
For the official forecasts, see the NHC's archive on Tropical Storm Arlene (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/refresh/ARLENE+shtml/) and the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center's latest public advisory (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAHPCAT1+shtml/).
Timeline of events
June
- June 9
- 7 am EDT (1100 UTC) - TD 1 becomes Tropical Storm Arlene.
- June 11
- 2 pm CDT (1900 UTC) - Tropical Storm Arlene makes landfall west of Pensacola, Florida.
- 7 pm CDT (0000 UTC) - Tropical Storm Arlene is downgraded to a tropical depression.
- June 13
- 5 pm EDT (2100 UTC) - The HPC stops monitoring Tropical Depression Arlene over Michigan.
2005 storm names
The following names will be used for tropical storms and hurricanes that form in the north Atlantic in 2005. This is the same list used for the 1999 season, with the exceptions of Franklin and Lee, which replace Floyd and Lenny. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. Names not yet assigned are marked in gray. Bold names are currently active.
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See also
External links
- William Gray's 2005 Extended Range Forecast (http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2004/dec2004/) (issued December 3, 2004)
- National Hurricane Center (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)
- 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Blog (http://2005-atlantic-hurricane-season.blogspot.com/)
Categories: Current events | Atlantic hurricane seasons | 2005 Atlantic hurricane season | 2005 meteorology
